Study Says Voters May Surprise Pollsters In Democratic Presidential Primaries

Seattle, WA (AHN) - A new study has found that some polls may not reflect reality when it comes to Democratic presidential rival candidates Sens. Barak Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. Some polls are overestimating support for Obama while underestimating Clinton's support, University of Washington researchers say.

In a national study, the researchers found conflicting results depending on if the participants were asked whom they supported versus taking a test to uncover whom they supported.

The research might explain why polls in the past have been inaccurate when it comes to predicting how well a black candidate will do in an election.

"In the past, poll numbers have often overestimated support for black candidates when compared to their actual vote percentages," Bethany Albertson, a UW assistant political science professor, said in a statement. "Findings of this study suggest that this familiar pattern may be about to repeat itself in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries."

In the research, when people were asked whom they planned to vote for, Obama had a 42 percent to 34 percent margin over Clinton with Edwards in third place with 12 percent. But, when the same people took an Implicit Association Test that measures their unconscious or automatic preferences, Clinton won with 48 percent of the voters, Edwards was second with 27 percent and Obama fell to third with 25 percent.

However, the research was not randomly conducted, the 926 people age 18 and over who took the online experimental test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 5, were self-selected volunteers.

Time will tell whether the polls are accurate or not and the polls often give conflicting information and at best the results seem to change often.

Here's a look at some of the traditional polls this week that asked people which candidate they plan to support.

According to USA Today on Friday, in a statewide New Hampshire USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted from Monday to Wednesday, Obama and Clinton are locked in a dead heat.

The Herald Sun reported Friday that a new Washington Post/ABC News poll reveals that Obama is leading with lead 33 percent, with Clinton at 29 percent and Edwards trailing with 20 percent.

The Boston Globe on Friday reported that in Iowa, a CNN poll released Thursday shows Clinton, Obama and Edwards running a dead-even three way split among likely voters.

But the wild card in the primaries could be women.

According to a Boston Globe, women are likely to account for up to 60 percent of all Democratic voters in the upcoming primaries and caucuses. That's because the Democratic candidates have reached out to women, especially those who haven't traditionally voted in primaries or caucuses, as well as women who have traditionally voted Republican.