Leading Economic Indicators in U.S. Surprisingly Rise In September

New York, NY (AHN) - The U.S. leading economic indicators index for the month of September surprisingly increased, according to a report released on Monday.

The Conference Board announced that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.5 percent in September.

The report showed that the leading index has gained for the first time in the last five months, after a 0.9 percent drop the prior month.

Among the six of the ten list of positive indicators in the leading index include real money supply, consumer expectations, the interest rate spread, and the index of supplier deliveries, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.

The four of the ten leading indicators that had negative impact on the index are were building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, and average weekly manufacturing hours.

The leading index now stands at 100.6. The report said based on revised data, the leading index dropped by 0.7 percent in July.

During the six-month period through September, the leading index moved down by 1.3 percent, with two out of ten components advancing, according to the report.

The coincident index now stands at 106. This index remained unchanged in the month of August, but had declined by 0.2 percent in the month of July.

Over the six months period through September, the coincident index declined by 0.8 percent, with one out of four components advancing, the report said.

The Conference Board said the leading index has been declining since July 2007 because of the consistent widespread weakness among its components.

While, the coincident index, a monthly measure of current economic conditions, has also been moving down, and its rate of decline has accelerated in recent months, according to the report.

"Real GDP growth slowed to a 1.8 percent average annual rate in the first half of the year, down from an average annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second half of 2007," the Conference Board said in the report.

"Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is unlikely to improve in the near term."

The New York-based Conference Board, a research network, started computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce since 1995.