Group Finds Economic Recovery "Very Near"

September 21, 2009 4:35 p.m. EST

Washington, D.C. (AHN) - American's economic recovery "is very near," a report by a private research organization concluded Monday.

The assertion by the Conference Board was based on improvements in 10 leading economic indicators measured by the group. Five of the indicators improved in August, while two had not change.

The indicators are used to forecast economic fortunes up to nine months into the future. An index that measures current activity, the coincident index, was unchanged for the month after being revised to show a 0.1 percent increase in July.

The indicators have been rising since April after being in decline for 20 months.

"The LEI has risen for five consecutive months and the coincident economic index has stopped falling," said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist. "Taken together, this suggests that the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain."

Indicators on the rise were slower supplied deliveries, the interest rate spread, higher stock prices, an increase in building permits, and brighter consumer expectations. Those indices still on the decline were from the real money supply, jobless claims and capital goods orders. Not showing any change were the factory workweek and consumer goods orders.