Researchers Develop System To Predict Hurricane Related Power Outages

October 20, 2009 4:08 p.m. EST

Baltimore, MD (AHN) - Using compiled data from Hurricane Katrina and several other highly destructive storms, researchers believe they have found a way to accurately predict power outages ahead of a hurricane. Their approach provides estimates of how many outages will occur across a region.

Researchers from Johns Hopkins and Texas A and M universities say their computer models have the potential to save utility companies substantial amounts of money, savings that can then be passed on to customers.

Furthermore the information gives power and utility companies the ability to strategically place personnel and equipment to restore power quickly.

Steven Quiring, an assistant professor of geography at Texas A and M says, "If the power company overestimates, it has spent a lot of unnecessary money."

Quiring continues, "If it underestimates, the time needed to restore power can take several extra days or longer, which is unacceptable to them and the people they serve. So these companies need the best estimates possible, and we think this study can help them make the best possible informed decision."

What makes the research team's computational approach unique and increases its accuracy is the combination of more detailed information about the storm that modern technology allows. Also computational analysis of the area it is impacting along with detailed specifics of area's power system. All these factors combined allow for an appropriate statistical model.

In developing their computer model, the researchers looked at damage data from five hurricanes: Dennis (1995), Danny (1997), Georges (1998), Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005). In the areas studied, Ivan created 13,500 power outages; Katrina, more than 10,000; Dennis, about 4,800; Georges, 1,075; and Danny, 620.

For the worst of these storms, some customers were without power for up to 11 days.