Israelis Guess How Their Compatriots Overseas May Vote

February 9, 2010 2:21 p.m. EST

Jerusalem, Israel (TML) - Israeli politicians were at each others' throats Tuesday over a proposal by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to allow Israelis living abroad to vote in the country's national elections.

Netanyahu told a meeting of his right wing Likud party on Monday that his government plans to submit a bill in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, that would allow Israeli citizens to vote from outside the country.

"It will contribute to the connection and to Israel's strength," Netanyahu was quoted as saying at the meeting.

Currently only Israeli envoys and diplomats can vote from overseas. Israel's Absorption Ministry estimates that around 750,000 Israeli citizens live outside the country, and in a country with just over five million eligible voters such an influx of voters would have a noticeable impact.

The push for the voting rights of Israelis living abroad is one of the clauses in an agreement signed between Netanyahu's center-right Likud party and now-Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's right Yisrael Beiteinu party upon their post-election formation of a governing coalition last year. The coalition agreement calls for a bill allowing Israelis abroad to vote to be brought before the Knesset within a year of the government's establishment.

"There are many things in the coalition agreement that we plan to implement," Lieberman said at a Knesset press conference. "The law allowing Israelis abroad to vote will be voted on... I promise to keep 100% of the promises we made to our voters."

Opposition leaders immediately slammed the proposal and Israel's center-left Labor party, ultra orthodox Shas party and centrist Kadima party were all expected to oppose the bill.

"The right to determine Israel's fate must lie in the hands of those who live in Israel and are willing to bear the brunt of their decisions," opposition and Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said in a statement. "During his first year in office and also today, Netanyahu has proved that he is prepared to sell the country's future out to his political partners."

Livni, said Israelis abroad "should be encouraged to cultivate ties to [Israel] and to return to it."

But Israeli political analysts say the debate centers on the unproven premise that Israelis living abroad would vote for the right wing parties that make up much of Prime Minister Netanyahu's governing coalition.

"There is a myth or general belief that Israelis living abroad are more right wing," Dr Tamir Sheafer, an expert in Israeli political campaigns and professor of communications and politics at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem told The Media Line. "But it's difficult to know because we don't have demographic studies about this, we don't know what the turnout would be and we don't know who would come to vote. So this brings up many open questions and it's difficult to know who this would help."

"They are clearly convinced that they will gain political power from this," he said. "One possibility is that they did some research or surveys and know something that we don't, but I doubt that. What we do know is that Israelis who returned to Russia are likely to vote for the right and Lieberman, who is leading the initiative. So at least from his point of view it's rational to expect that this would help him. On the other hand public opinion in Europe is very anti the Israeli occupation. Maybe Israelis who live there accept this premise and would vote left wing."

"In the end, I'm guessing that the distribution would be more or less similar to what you have in Israel," Dr Sheafer said. "It wouldn't have much of an effect."

Dr Roby Nathanson, Director General of the Macro Center for Political Economics, an Israeli think tank, argued that it was premature to make assessments of how Israelis overseas may vote.

"The common assumption is that people overseas will vote for more nationalistic parties more than left wing parties or those more interested in negotiations," he told The Media Line. "This is clearly the motive behind the promotion of this law but it's hard to know if that assumption is true. It could be the case but it's not necessarily."

Dr Nathanson argued against the bill.

"The government tries to say that giving voting rights to citizens living overseas is common in other countries like France or Germany," he said. "But you cannot compare the Israeli political landscape with other countries."

"Israel is a country of immigrants," Dr Nathanson said. "Those who came here made huge sacrifices and maybe joined the army. I settled here from South America because I wanted to have my life here and to participate in decision making in Israel. So you cannot award those who left the country."

"I'm not talking about diplomats or business people - perhaps we need special arrangements for them," he said. "I'm talking about the tons of Israelis who left the country because they don't like it. What are you doing by giving this right to those who leave the country? Our political situation is complicated enough already and this could bring us to a very absurd situation."

Dahlia Scheindlin, a political consultant, public opinion analyst and pollster was also opposed.

"The problem with this whole thing is that the assumption is that this is political, either by increasing the right wing vote, or the ultra-orthodox Jewish vote, or the left wing vote or whatever," she told The Media Line. "Yet this is supposed to be a law about strengthening the electoral process by bringing more Israelis into it. That shouldn't be a political decision."

Dr Ron Breiman, a spokesperson for the Hatikva faction in the National Union-National Religious Party, said it was not clear how Israelis abroad would vote.

"I don't know why they are saying the assumption is that Israelis overseas would vote for Likud or Yisrael Beiteinu," he told The Media Line. "I don't think there is evidence to support this and I don't know how you can tell what are the political opinions of Israelis who have been overseas for decades. Who knows how they would vote if they were given the right, or if they would even be interested."

Dr Breiman argued in favor of a distinction being made between Israelis temporarily overseas and those living abroad for many years.

"There's a difference between someone who is in America studying or on business for two years and someone living there for 30 years," he told The Media Line. "I think if they have been overseas for more than five years I think they should lose their right to vote."